Understanding causal pathways within health systems policy evaluation through mediation analysis: an application to payment for performance (P4P) in Tanzania

Table 8 Indirect effect of potential mediators on maternal care outcomes

	Facility-based delivery (% change)	Public facility delivery (% change)
Effect of P4P without mediators
Total effect	7.9***	7.4**
(Confidence Interval)	(2.4; 13.3)	(0.9; 13.9)
Indirect effect of P4P on outcome through mediators
Oxytocin injection stock-out	3.9	5.0
Indirect effect (coefficient interaction)	0.024	0.030
Confidence interval	(−0.00; 0.138)	(−0.083; 0.143)
Percentage of total effect
Health worker kindness
Indirect effect (coefficient interaction)	0.1
Confidence interval	(−0.019; 0.020)
Percentage of total effect
Percentage of women who paid for delivery in a HF
Indirect effect (coefficient interaction)		2.3
Confidence interval		(0.4; 4.9)
Percentage of total effect		31.1

95% confidence intervals in parentheses; percent sign (%) indicates percentage points change; bold font indicates identified mediators *p < 0.10; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01

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