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Table 2 Single-group interrupted time series analysis of opioid and gabapentinoid prescribing in Scotland

From: Assessing the impact of a national clinical guideline for the management of chronic pain on opioid prescribing rates: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

 

Opioids

Gabapentinoids

Estimate (95% confidence interval)

Standard error

P value

Estimate (95% confidence interval)

Standard errora

P value

Intercept, β0

224.46 (219.79, 229.12)

2.33

<0.01

3.62 (0.35, 6.90)

1.64

0.03

Pre-intervention trend, β1

2.19 (1.97, 2.41)

0.11

<0.01

0.88 (0.67, 1.08)

0.10

<0.01

Change in level, β2

−1.09 (−8.21, 6.03)

3.56

0.76

8.00 (2.27, 13.73)

2.86

0.01

Change in trend, β3

−2.82 (−3.24, −2.40)

0.21

<0.01

0.27 (0.07, 0.47)

0.10

0.01

Post-intervention trend, β1+3

−0.64 (−0.98, −0.29)

0.17

<0.01

1.15 (1.04, 1.26)

0.05

<0.01

Relative change, %b

−20.67 (−23.61, −17.76)

n/a

n/a

25.89 (15.25, 43.29)

n/a

n/a

Durbin-Watson statistic

1.64

n/a

n/a

0.80

n/a

n/a

  1. β0–3 are coefficients from the single-group interrupted time series analysis model; the intercept represents the outcome at the start of the study period; the relative change is calculated compared to the predicted value at the same time point had the pre-intervention trend continued
  2. aNewey-West
  3. bCalculated at quarter 2 2020. 95% confidence interval calculated using model bootstrapping